🤖Tech & AI
3 articles
The Forty-Five Percent Problem: Why GPT-5 is Stuck in Purgatory
With $4.5 million on the line, bettors are increasingly skeptical that Sam Altman can deliver his next flagship model by mid-2026.
Odds:Yes 45%No 55%
The Three-Cent War: Why Traders Are Shrugging Off a Taiwan Invasion
Traders are betting heavily against a cross-strait conflict before 2026, pricing the risk of a Chinese invasion at a mere three cents on the dollar.
Odds:Yes 3%No 97%
Twelve Cents for a Robotaxi: Why Tesla’s Autonomy Dreams Trade at a Discount
Prediction markets have priced in a massive failure for Elon Musk’s 2026 autonomy goals, with 'Yes' shares languishing at just 12 cents.
Odds:Yes 12%No 88%