Polymarket Radar

📈Economy & Finance

10 articles

Image for Summer Stasis At The Federal Reserve
Economy & FinanceJun 18, 20264 min read

Summer Stasis At The Federal Reserve

Investors are pouring millions into the belief that Jerome Powell will keep the federal funds rate frozen through the middle of 2026.

Odds:Yes 80%No 20%
Image for Crude Realities Collide With A Cooling Global Economy
Economy & FinanceMay 21, 20264 min read

Crude Realities Collide With A Cooling Global Economy

A surge in trading volume suggests that the prospect of triple-digit oil is no longer a fringe theory, even as recessionary winds blow.

Odds:Yes 38%No 62%
Image for Geopolitics Fails To Ignite The Energy Trade
Economy & FinanceApr 29, 20263 min read

Geopolitics Fails To Ignite The Energy Trade

Traders are assigning a 37% probability to WTI Crude hitting $110 by April, a valuation that seems increasingly detached from record American production.

Odds:Yes 37%No 63%
Image for The $5 Million Conviction: Louisville’s Price of Perfection Against the Bulls
Economy & FinanceMar 19, 20263 min read

The $5 Million Conviction: Louisville’s Price of Perfection Against the Bulls

A massive $4.6 million spike in trading volume has solidified the Louisville Cardinals as 86% favorites against South Florida, leaving no room for sentiment.

Odds:Yes 14%No 86%
Image for Red Raiders, Blue Chips: The $1.1 Million Squeeze on Akron
Economy & FinanceMar 19, 20264 min read

Red Raiders, Blue Chips: The $1.1 Million Squeeze on Akron

Traders are backing Texas Tech with overwhelming volume, but the 26% price tag on an Akron upset suggests the market might be mispricing the MAC’s finest.

Odds:Yes 26%No 74%
Image for Efficiency vs. Entropy: The $2 Million Bet on a Mid-Major Collision
Economy & FinanceMar 18, 20263 min read

Efficiency vs. Entropy: The $2 Million Bet on a Mid-Major Collision

A massive surge in trading volume has pushed Lehigh to a 60% favorite, but the underlying data suggests the market may be overvaluing discipline.

Odds:Yes 60%No 40%
Image for The Madison Square Garden Liquidity Trap
Economy & FinanceMar 16, 20264 min read

The Madison Square Garden Liquidity Trap

A massive $5.1 million betting surge has pushed the Warriors-Knicks prediction market into a state of total, if mathematically suspicious, certainty.

Odds:Yes 0%No 100%
Image for The Century Mark: Why Predictors See $100 Oil as an Inevitability
Economy & FinanceMar 9, 20264 min read

The Century Mark: Why Predictors See $100 Oil as an Inevitability

With an 84% probability on prediction markets, the return of triple-digit crude is no longer a tail risk but a baseline expectation for the global economy.

Odds:Yes 84%No 16%
Image for The One Hundred Million Dollar Silence: Why Traders Shun the Sledgehammer
Economy & FinanceMar 9, 20264 min read

The One Hundred Million Dollar Silence: Why Traders Shun the Sledgehammer

Traders have wagered over $111 million on a total lack of drama for the Fed’s March 2026 meeting, pricing a jumbo rate cut at exactly zero.

Odds:Yes 0%No 100%
Image for The Death of the Hawk: Why $96 Million Bet Against a 2026 Rate Hike
Economy & FinanceMar 9, 20264 min read

The Death of the Hawk: Why $96 Million Bet Against a 2026 Rate Hike

With prediction markets showing a 0% chance of a March 2026 rate hike, traders have signaled the total extinction of monetary hawkishness.

Odds:Yes 0%No 100%